ELECTION WEATHER
Who will Win? YOU WILL if you VOTE!
The votes are tabulated and the a we have a winner. It’s Mother Nature!
Mother Nature knows absolutely no politcal ideoology. It doesn’t belong to a “Party”. It is neither Republican or Democrat. So, the key question is: Does the weather play a role on Election Day. The answer is yes.
For instance, rain can lower voter turnout by about 1% for every centimeter, based on a study of 27 reports from 1993 to 2023. This can change close elections. Research on U.S. presidential races from 1948 to 2000 showed that rain and snow tend to help Republican candidates. For each extra inch of rain, Republicans gained around 2.5% of the vote, and 0.6% for extra snow. For example, in the tight 2000 election, rain in Florida may have helped George W. Bush win over Al Gore.
A 2018 study by Horiuchi and Kang re-examines previous research and finds that rain affects "marginal" voters—those who vote less often and are typically younger, lower-income, and more likely to support Democrats. They estimate that an extra 0.96 inches of rain lowers turnout by 1.07%, decreasing Democratic votes by 2.08% and increasing Republican votes by 1.00%. The study suggests that rain helps Republicans because marginal voters are less likely to vote in bad weather, and some Democratic voters may switch to Republicans when it rains.
However, some argue that alternative voting methods will prevent bad weather from reducing voter turnout. There were many earlier studies of weather and turnout conducted when in-person voting on Election Day was the primary way to submit ballots. The research analysis suggest a rainy Election Day may actually boost turnout during subsequent elections by prompting people to use alternative voting methods.
In the end this all really just suggests that WE NEED TO VOTE regardless of the “weather”. It’s our right!
